Last season’s runners-up, Kawasaki Frontale, will host Shonan Bellmare in their third match of the J1 League 2023. The hosts began the season with a loss in their opening fixture. However, they returned to winning ways in the previous match and will be aiming for back-to-back wins. Shonan Bellmare are undefeated this season and have earned four points in two matches. As teams look to take an early momentum, we look at some of the stats that could predict the outcome of the match.
Kawasaki Frontale’s attacking threat
The home team began their season against the defending champions, the Yokohama F. Marinos. They suffered a 2-1 defeat at home. In their next match, which was away at Kashima Antlers, the team returned to winning ways and finished the match with the same scoreline. Kawasaki Frontale showed dominance in the attack but were unable to find the back of the net frequently.
Kawasaki Frontale averages 68.06% possession per match this season. They created 39 positional attacks in the first match and 32 in the second one. In the first match, Kawasaki players created most of the chances from the left, but their attacks from the centre generated a high xG rate. In the second match, they attacked more through the central zones but were unable to create enough xG from the shots attempted from these attacks. They might have failed to register more goals from these attacks, but the team carries an attacking threat, and that will be a worry for the visitors.
The team took 30 shots combined in both matches and had an accuracy rate of 30%. Kawasaki’s xG rate is on the higher side at 2.75 per match, but their failure to convert most of the chances is the reason why the team has only scored three goals. The manager will expect his team to be more clinical in this match.
Kawasaki Frontale played a very high line in both matches. This allowed them to make some high regains and these are usually threatening as some of them can lead to a shot. The team made 15 dangerous recoveries and a few came in the final third. This will be a worry for the away side as these dangerous recoveries can be converted into goals.
Shonan Bellmare’s threat on the counter
Shonan Bellmare started the season with a 5-1 win over Sagan Tosu. Their next match ended in a 2-2 draw against Yokohama F.C. They carry a lot of offensive threats and won’t allow their opponents to take three points.
Shonan Bellmare have been a counterattacking side. They created six counterattacks in the first match and five in the second match. Other than this, the team averages 26 positional attacks per match.
In these two matches, the team attempted 40 shots. They had a high accuracy rate of 50% in the match. The above xG map shows that Shanon Bellmare have managed to take most of their shots from inside the penalty box, and due to this, the xG rate is on the higher side. Kawasaki Frontale will have to deal with this threat.
As per the 1×2 betting odds, Kawasaki Frontale are the favourites to win the match. The home team has odds of around 1.75 to win the match. Despite scoring goals and getting results in their last two matches, Shonan Bellmare are the least favourite to win the match. They have odds of around 4.4 to win the match. There are more chances of a draw than of the away team winning the tie. As per the over/under lines, the over is expected to thrive because of the ability of both teams to score goals.
This can turn out to be an exciting match between these two sides. Both teams have attacked well this season and generated a high xG rate. The home team will have the advantage, and a win can shift their momentum towards winning the league title.
Visuals via Wyscout and the TFA data viz engine